ESPN.com - NFL - Take 2: Eagles vs. Browns Friday, October 22, 2004
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Eagles and Browns. Now they're back with a
second look.
Cleveland QB Jeff Garcia has had good success in the past against
the blitz-frenzy that is Philadelphia's defense, as he completed 58 of 104
attempts for 645 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions his
last three seasons in San Francisco. He is an intelligent quarterback who
makes good pre-snap reads and is at his best making quick throws
underneath.
When he had good timing and rapport with his receivers in San Francisco,
Garcia was able to consistently beat the blitz. However, don't expect as
much success this week with Garcia's timing still not where it needs to be
with his receivers, especially with a hobbled Andre' Davis and newly
acquired Antonio Bryant (trade w/ Dallas for Quincy Morgan).
Cleveland ROG Kelvin Garmon has a strained quadriceps and was extremely
limited in practice this week. He is expected to play, but the injury
makes his matchup with Eagles DT Corey Simon an even bigger mismatch. The
Browns will likely need to double team Simon on most passing plays, which
will open up an extra gap for the Eagles to blitz through.
The Browns would like to spread the field with a lot of multiple-receiver
sets in order to spread the Eagles out and diminish their ability to blitz
as much as they would like, but following the Morgan-Bryant trade, the
Eagles are extremely thin at wide receiver. Davis is expected to play, but
he's less than 100 percent with a toe injury. Dennis Northcutt, who
ordinarily would be a No. 3 but will move up to a starting role on Sunday,
and No. 4 WR Andre King, who will be forced to move into the nickel
package, are the only other capable receivers.
The only chance the Browns have of pulling off an upset over the
undefeated Eagles is if they can get more than 150 yards on more than 30
combined carries from RBs Lee Suggs and William Green. Suggs and Green
have been splitting carries recently, with Green showing more consistency
and Suggs more potential explosiveness.
The Eagles have been strong from a statistical standpoint versus the run,
but those numbers can be deceiving, as they've had early leads in almost
all of their games, which has forced opponents to abandon the run a lot
earlier than they would like in order to play catch up. The Eagles are
still undersized along the defensive line and in their linebacker corps.
The Browns need to utilize their depth at running back, their size along
the offensive line and the excellent lead-blocking skills of FB Terrelle
Smith to establish ball control with a strong dedication to the run.
The Browns blitzed a lot more against the Bengals than they had in any
prior game this season. Much of it had to do with the fact that they were
playing a rookie quarterback in Carson Palmer, but the success (three
sacks) could lead coordinator Dave Campo to do more of it this week. The
Browns will struggle to get a pass rush on QB Donovan McNabb without the
blitz this week and, if they can't hurry McNabb, WR Terrell Owens will
kill them with his vertical speed and playmaking ability.
The Eagles need to creatively find ways to match RB Brian Westbrook
against Andra Davis in the passing game. Davis has good speed for his size
and is a tackling machine between the tackles, but he is much better
rushing the passer than he is in coverage because he lacks ideal hip
fluidity and change-of-direction skills. Westbrook, who ranks second on
his team with 28 receptions already this season, has the savvy as a route
runner and the explosiveness after the catch to make Davis look bad in
coverage.
Special Teams
Neither team has a significant advantage on special teams in this game. In
fact, the Eagles and Browns are very similar from a statistical point of
view. Cleveland PK Phil Dawson is perfect on 13 field goal attempts this
season, which gives the Browns a slight edge over Philadelphia, which also
has a solid kicker in David Akers, who is 13-of-16 on FGAs this season.
Dirk Johnson gives the Eagles an advantage in the punting game because he
has a little bit more experience than Cleveland's Derrick Frost, but the
two have very similar averages on the season. Johnson is averaging 42.6
yards per punt, while Frost is averaging 42.3.
There isn't much of a separation in the return game, either. The Eagles
clearly have the advantage on kickoff returns, as rookie J.R. Reed is
averaging 28.2 yards per return and the Browns aren't sure exactly who
will return kicks for them after they waived RS Dee Brown this week. James
Jackson and King are the likeliest of candidates. However, the Browns have
the advantage in the punt return game, where Dennis Northcutt is averaging
2.1 more yards than Reno Mahe
Prediction: Eagles 27, Browns 19
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Eagles and Browns. Now they're back with a
second look.
Cleveland QB Jeff Garcia has had good success in the past against
the blitz-frenzy that is Philadelphia's defense, as he completed 58 of 104
attempts for 645 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions his
last three seasons in San Francisco. He is an intelligent quarterback who
makes good pre-snap reads and is at his best making quick throws
underneath.
When he had good timing and rapport with his receivers in San Francisco,
Garcia was able to consistently beat the blitz. However, don't expect as
much success this week with Garcia's timing still not where it needs to be
with his receivers, especially with a hobbled Andre' Davis and newly
acquired Antonio Bryant (trade w/ Dallas for Quincy Morgan).
Cleveland ROG Kelvin Garmon has a strained quadriceps and was extremely
limited in practice this week. He is expected to play, but the injury
makes his matchup with Eagles DT Corey Simon an even bigger mismatch. The
Browns will likely need to double team Simon on most passing plays, which
will open up an extra gap for the Eagles to blitz through.
The Browns would like to spread the field with a lot of multiple-receiver
sets in order to spread the Eagles out and diminish their ability to blitz
as much as they would like, but following the Morgan-Bryant trade, the
Eagles are extremely thin at wide receiver. Davis is expected to play, but
he's less than 100 percent with a toe injury. Dennis Northcutt, who
ordinarily would be a No. 3 but will move up to a starting role on Sunday,
and No. 4 WR Andre King, who will be forced to move into the nickel
package, are the only other capable receivers.
The only chance the Browns have of pulling off an upset over the
undefeated Eagles is if they can get more than 150 yards on more than 30
combined carries from RBs Lee Suggs and William Green. Suggs and Green
have been splitting carries recently, with Green showing more consistency
and Suggs more potential explosiveness.
The Eagles have been strong from a statistical standpoint versus the run,
but those numbers can be deceiving, as they've had early leads in almost
all of their games, which has forced opponents to abandon the run a lot
earlier than they would like in order to play catch up. The Eagles are
still undersized along the defensive line and in their linebacker corps.
The Browns need to utilize their depth at running back, their size along
the offensive line and the excellent lead-blocking skills of FB Terrelle
Smith to establish ball control with a strong dedication to the run.
The Browns blitzed a lot more against the Bengals than they had in any
prior game this season. Much of it had to do with the fact that they were
playing a rookie quarterback in Carson Palmer, but the success (three
sacks) could lead coordinator Dave Campo to do more of it this week. The
Browns will struggle to get a pass rush on QB Donovan McNabb without the
blitz this week and, if they can't hurry McNabb, WR Terrell Owens will
kill them with his vertical speed and playmaking ability.
The Eagles need to creatively find ways to match RB Brian Westbrook
against Andra Davis in the passing game. Davis has good speed for his size
and is a tackling machine between the tackles, but he is much better
rushing the passer than he is in coverage because he lacks ideal hip
fluidity and change-of-direction skills. Westbrook, who ranks second on
his team with 28 receptions already this season, has the savvy as a route
runner and the explosiveness after the catch to make Davis look bad in
coverage.
Special Teams
Neither team has a significant advantage on special teams in this game. In
fact, the Eagles and Browns are very similar from a statistical point of
view. Cleveland PK Phil Dawson is perfect on 13 field goal attempts this
season, which gives the Browns a slight edge over Philadelphia, which also
has a solid kicker in David Akers, who is 13-of-16 on FGAs this season.
Dirk Johnson gives the Eagles an advantage in the punting game because he
has a little bit more experience than Cleveland's Derrick Frost, but the
two have very similar averages on the season. Johnson is averaging 42.6
yards per punt, while Frost is averaging 42.3.
There isn't much of a separation in the return game, either. The Eagles
clearly have the advantage on kickoff returns, as rookie J.R. Reed is
averaging 28.2 yards per return and the Browns aren't sure exactly who
will return kicks for them after they waived RS Dee Brown this week. James
Jackson and King are the likeliest of candidates. However, the Browns have
the advantage in the punt return game, where Dennis Northcutt is averaging
2.1 more yards than Reno Mahe
Prediction: Eagles 27, Browns 19
